UKRAINE CRISIS

Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. Ukraine borders Russia to the east and northeast, Belarus to the northwest, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary to the west, Romania and Moldova to the southwest, and the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to the south and southeast, respectively.

It is second largest country in the Europe. Ukraine and Russia share common historical origin, the west of country has close ties with European countries, while eastern part shares close ties with Russia .Most of Ukrainian industry lies in eastern part and this part is pro-Russian.

Orange Revolution

Mass protests, a revolt by state media against government controls and the fracturing of the governing coalition brought in European-Union mediation and a re-run of the election.

A fragile alliance of anti-Kuchma forces united behind pro-Western opposition leader and former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko, who won the presidency.

Mr Yushchenko succeeded in carrying out some democratic reform, but moves towards Nato and EU membership were slowed by divided public opinion in Ukraine and Western reluctance to antagonise a resurgent Russia.

Rivalry with his prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, soured into open antagonism, and neither proved able to cope with the worldwide economic downturn after 2008.

Their opponent in the Orange Revolution, Viktor Yanukovych, won the 2010 presidential election. He swiftly re-oriented foreign and trade policy towards Russia, clamped down on media freedom, and had various opponents, most prominently Ms Tymoshenko, imprisoned in trials seen at by many as politically-motivated.

Although trade with EU countries now exceeds that with Russia, Moscow is the largest individual trading partner

Financial position of Ukraine

Ukraine is reeling under a great economic distress. The Ukrainian economy's dependence on steel exports made it particularly vulnerable to the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008, and in October of that year the country was offered a $16.5bn (£10.4bn) loan by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

A further IMF bailout of $15bn (£9bn) was approved in 2010 but frozen the following year after the government failed to implement the financial reforms required as a condition of the loan. Ukraine is very heavily dependent on Russia not only for economic assistance but also for its energy need. Under these circumstance

There are also still doubts about who, if anyone, will provide the financial assistance Ukraine needs to avoid a default on its foreign debt.

The country's finance ministry has said that $35bn (£21bn) will be needed over the next two years. Ukraine does have a $15bn lending programme agreed with Russia, and has already received a first instalment - worth one-fifth of the total. But further payments from Russia are unlikely if Ukraine ends up with a government keen to turn towards the EU.

Ukraine is not even in position to get further loan from IMF because Ukraine government had not implemented agreed policies.

Now Ukraine has a tough choice to choose between European Union and Russia.

Russia and Ukraine

A significant minority of the population of Ukraine are Russians or use Russian as their first language. Russian influence is particularly strong in the industrialised east, as well as in Crimea.

Russia has geo-political interest in Ukraine particularly southern part of Ukraine, Crimea, is autonomous region. It was given to Ukraine in 1954, as Ukraine was part of erstwhile USSR. Crimea has strategic position in black sea.

The majority Russian-speaking Crimea region is of political and strategic significance to both Russia and Ukraine.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has its historic base at Sevastopol. After Ukraine gained independence, a leasing agreement was drawn up to allow the fleet to continue operating from there.

In 2010, this lease was extended to 2042 in exchange for Russia supplying discounted natural gas.

Ukraine and European Union

West part of Ukraine has very strong pro-European sentiment. Recent move to reach a trade agreement with European is staunchly supported by west part of country. It is evident that country is divided between two group east and west. If it signs agreement with European Union, it will 28th country to be part of European Union. Protest is further escalated after one of Baltic state became part to European Union.


 

What significance this event has For India

If Russian assert its pressure on Ukraine,as, it will certainly do. Russia is bound to face repercussion of NATO and US pressure. Under these circumstances Russia will be left no choice but to seek support from Big Brother China. China is striving to play bigger role in world arena. She wont hesitate in extending her support. This will work against Indian interest in black sea.